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Snowpack Summary for Friday, December 28, 2018 1:10 PM Winter Weather Advisory. Happy New Year!

This summary expired Dec. 30, 2018 1:10 PM

Flagstaff, Arizona - Backcountry of The San Francisco Peaks and Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Disclaimer

Format and Limitations Statement

Newsletter

Overall Currently, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for most of the higher terrain of Northern Arizona, lasting through 5 pm today, December 28th. Snow accumulation is 4" for Snowbowl at 10,800' and 5" for the Snowslide SNOTEL at 9,730'. More snow is possible today and tonight. Light winds have resulted in little wind transport of the new snow.

High temperatures and strong winds last week created surface crust and wind slabs near ridgetops, at and above treeline on east, west and wind loaded aspects from 70 + mph north winds. The snowpack is thin, @ 60-80 cm in sheltered locations at treeline (@ 11,500'), and thus a temperature gradient exists within the snowpack forming depth hoar and near surface facets, which weaken the structure of the overall snowpack.

Observations from 12-27 indicate poor structure, moderate strength and low reactivity (see attached snow profile). However, near surface facets under these crusts and wind slab may prove to be a dangerous persistent weak layer with significant snowfall. Human triggered avalanches are possible, and natural avalanches are unlikely.

Early season conditions continue. The new snow has marginally improved touring, however coverage will remain spotty with hidden obstacles, especially on sun affected slopes. Over the weekend, ridgeline windchill values will dip to near -15° F.

No natural or skier triggered slab avalanches have been reported so far this winter.
Near and Above TreelineBackcountry powder skiing has been in low supply for a while. Watch out for the scarcity heuristic trap, as it may lead you into thin powder snow full of hidden sharks. Coverage is still quite thin overall.

Steep isolated slopes near treeline have localized wind slabs from strong north wind last week. Current ASBTP winds indicate that new wind slabs may be a low probability. The new precipitation is very light and will be easily transported once wind speeds increase.

No significant wind drifts were observed near 10,800' this morning at 8 AM.
Below TreelineTouring conditions have marginally improved with the current storm. At lower elevations the coverage is spotty with ample hidden rocks and logs. Sun affected slopes are very thin. On Christmas we found crusts overlaying sugary, faceted snow on many aspects below 10,000'.

With the new snow, decent cross country touring can be found near 9,000' on shady terrain. The snowpack is still thin, watch for hidden obstacles! The overall snowpack depth averages 30" above 10,500', and diminishes rapidly at lower elevations, especially south aspects.

Current Problems (noninclusive) more info

Wind Slab
problem 1
Wind speeds at ASBTP have been light and our confidence in finding any significant new wind slabs is low. No significant wind drifts were observed near 10,800' this morning at 8 AM.

Localized wind slabs from previous wind loading exist on cross loaded slopes and ridgelines at and above treeline. Strength and cohesion of these slabs are variable and may fracture in isolated locations. Hollow sounding snow and whumpfing are indicators of hard slabs and should be avoided. Evaluate each slope before skiing.

Keep an eye on the ASBTP weather station. Speeds between 17 and 25 mph are ideal for transporting snow and creating wind slabs.
Storm Slab
problem 2
With the very cold temperatures, check to see if the new snow has bonded to the old snow. With the light amounts of snow this problem may be nonexistent, but watch for it on steep slopes near and above treeline.

The bulls eye slope angle for avalanche activity is 38 degrees. Moderating slope angles to 30 degrees and less drastically reduces the likelihood of triggering an avalanche.

Images

image

12-27-18 Snow profile from 11,550', Northwest aspect. Note weak near surface facets just below wind slab at 48 cm. These slabs are localized in cross loaded terrain and near ridgelines.

image

Agassiz Peak and Core Ridge viewed from Lockett Meadow on December 24th, 2018.
Courtesy of Troy Marino.

Final Thoughts

See our courses page for upcoming free courses, including a FREE Introduction to Avalanches Seminar at Aspen Sports on January 3.

Backcountry permits are required for travel in the Kachina Peaks Wilderness and available at local USFS locations, as well as, at the Agassiz Lodge on Saturday and Sunday 8:30 -11:30 a.m.

For information on uphill travel within the Arizona Snowbowl ski area, please refer to www.flagstaffuphill.com and https://www.snowbowl.ski/the-mountain/uphill-access/ for details. Access to the Kachina Peaks Wilderness is available from the lower lots at Snowbowl via the Humphreys Trail and Kachina Trail.

Weather

Currently from 5 pm Thursday through 5 pm Friday (December 28th) much of the higher terrain is under a Winter Weather Advisory. So far accumulations have been on low, with AZ Snowbowl reporting 4" as of 9 AM today, December 28th.

By Saturday and Sunday we will feel the coldest temperatures so far this season,
with single digit lows across much of the plateau, and high temperatures likely below freezing.

Flagstaff highs will likely remain near freezing as another weather system looks to impact the area, starting New Years Eve.

On December 20th, Flagstaff hit 62° F. The warmest December temperature in 100 years. The Christmas storm produced only one inch of snow at 10,800'. SnoTel reported less than an inch.

On Friday morning, December 28th, the Inner Basin SNOTEL site (Snowslide) reported a snow depth of 17 inches (43 cm) at 9,730 feet, and Arizona Snowbowl reported a settled base of 33 inches (84 cm) at 10,800 feet. So far this winter, 48 inches (122 cm) of snow have fallen at the mid-mountain study site.

Since December 21st, SNOTEL temperatures have ranged between 6°F on December 27th, and 48°F on December 21st. For the same period, the AZ Snowbowl Top Patrol Station (ASBTP 11,555 feet) temperatures ranged between -1°F on December 28th, and 33°F on December 24th.
Weather Links

Authored/Edited By: David Lovejoy, Troy Marino, Derik Spice

Avalanche Problems/Characters

The avalanche problem/character describes part of the current avalanche danger. However because we only realease a summary once a week, the current avalanche problem will likely change. Understanding avalanche problems is essential, because it allows you to determine your approach and strategies to risk treatment. Below are brief descriptions of avalanche problems/characters, and links to detailed information on the problem, formation, patterns, recognition, and avoidance strategies.
Avalanche Problems Explained
Also see the North American Danger Scale.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry

Release of dry unconsolidated snow. These avalanches typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. Loose-dry avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose-dry avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Loose Dry avalanches are usually relatively harmless to people. They can be hazardous if you are caught and carried into or over a terrain trap (e.g. gully, rocks, dense timber, cliff, crevasse) or down a long slope. Avoid traveling in or above terrain traps when Loose Dry avalanches are likely. more info

Storm Slab

Storm Slab

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side. more info

Wind Slab

Wind Slab

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas. more info

Persistent Slab

Persistent Slab

Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty. more info

Deep Persistent Slab

Deep Persistent Slab

Release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer, deep in the snowpack or near the ground. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage. They commonly develop when Persistent Slabs become more deeply buried over time.

Deep Persistent Slabs are destructive and deadly events that can take months to stabilize. You can trigger them from well down in the avalanche path, and after dozens of tracks have crossed the slope. more info

Loose Wet

Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches. more info

Wet Slab

Wet Slab

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very destructive.

Avoid terrain where and when you suspect Wet Slab avalanche activity. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty. more info

Cornice Fall

Cornice Fall

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridge line areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.

Large cornices are generally rare in Arizona, but they have been observed during very snowy winters. more info

Glide

Glide

Release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. The are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.

Predicting the release of Glide Avalanches is very challenging. Because Glide Avalanches only occur on very specific slopes, safe travel relies on identifying and avoiding those slopes. Glide cracks are a significant indicator, as are recent Glide Avalanches.

Glide avalanches are very uncommon in Arizona. more info

Snowpack Summary Disclaimer

The summaries on this site were written by Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center Board Members. They are based on a broad spectrum of data collected from weather stations, National Weather Service point forecasts and field observation by qualified individuals.

The summaries are not intended to substitute for good knowledge and decision making skills in avalanche terrain. If you have any doubt of stable conditions, please stay away from avalanche terrain. You can usually find good places to go that are not prone to avalanches, such as on low angle slopes away from avalanche run-out zones. If you have any questions about where to find such places, you should consider further avalanche educational opportunities, such as those listed on our education page.

Snowpack Summary – Format and Limitations Statement

Starting in 2012 Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center (KPAC) has publish a weekly Snowpack Summary on our website. These summaries are currently issued on Friday afternoons. On occasion, we will give storm updates or warnings of rapidly increasing avalanche hazard at more frequent intervals. Our objective is to reach weekend recreationist, informing this user group of prevailing conditions, but particularly warning of avalanche hazards whenever they are present. Many people have asked us why we use the format we do, but do not include a danger rating or a hazard/stability rose as many other avalanche centers do around the west.

The National Avalanche Center (NAC) advises small operations like KPAC, who do not issue daily bulletins to not use danger ratings in our snowpack summaries due to the regular but intermittent nature of their field observations and the length of time between issuance of snowpack summaries. A primary concern is for how conditions can change in the time between publications, potentially giving the public misleading information. At this point, we simply do not have resources to monitor the snowpack at the level necessary to accurately produce more frequent bulletins. While we understand the benefits of a danger rating using the North American Danger Scale, we also feel that our format encourages people to dig in a little deeper, and spend some time reading what our forecasters are saying. Although the area that we forecast is relatively small, the variability has proven quite large. Inner Basin conditions are often surprisingly different from those on the more wind-affected western side on the Peaks.

We hope the information that we provide in summaries helps give you a good overview of what is going on out there, and what avalanche problems you should be attentive to, but if there is any uncertainty, then we encourage you to ask questions via Facebook or info@kachinapeaks.org.

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