Flagstaff, Arizona - Backcountry of The San Francisco Peaks and Kachina Peaks Wilderness
Format and Limitations Statement
There's been no new snow since the precipitation events of November 7-9. Until we get a significant weather change, natural and human triggered avalanches will be unlikely. There is not much snow and no transported snow has been observed during this week's wind events. The only locations that may have enough snow for avalanches will be near and above treeline on shady and northerly slopes. Keep in mind that we have no direct observations from the upper mountains - the snowpack is too thin for ski touring and getting to and from these high elevation locations by foot is no small feat.
Where there is snow, it is faceting, potentially creating a future weak layer. Facet development will be most prevalent on cold aspects, north and northeast slopes. Warm temperatures and direct sun are melting snow on south facing aspects.
Some long range weather forecast models hint at a pattern change around Thanksgiving to early December. Pray for snow.