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Snowpack Summary for Friday, December 17, 2021 4:53 PM Coverage Improves, Still Thin - base depth 19"

This summary expired Dec. 19, 2021 4:53 PM

Flagstaff, Arizona - Backcountry of The San Francisco Peaks and Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Disclaimer

Format and Limitations Statement

Newsletter

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onX Backcountry
Overall Coverage has improved with the Tuesday night storm, but base depth is still thin and backcountry skiing or boarding is not recommended. The thin coverage will make a backcountry tour difficult and likely damaging for gear and body. Current base depth is 19" at 10,800'. The shallow snowpack is comprised of weak facets, and is unsupportable.

On Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning (Dec. 14/15) approximately 7" (18cm) of relatively dense (30%) snow accumulated near treeline, accompanied by strong southwesterly gusts up to 67mph. Southwesterly slopes had noteworthy riming.
Until sufficient coverage exists for backcountry observations, there will be significant uncertainty with the current snowpack. The general consensus is that the few inches of early season snow (from Oct. and Nov.) has faceted, creating a weak base. December accumulations (and wind deposits) may create a slab over this weak base. This scenario will be most pronounced on northerly slopes near/above treeline where there are few anchors - slopes with a continuous and smooth substrate of cinder-gravel or grass, and leeward slopes from the recent southwest wind events.
Looking forward, models for late next week indicate a west coast trough moving inland over Arizona and tapping subtropical moisture. Snow levels could be elevated. See more in weather section.

Now is the time to dust off your avalanche-rescue gear, and practice your rescue skills.
Near and Above TreelineExpect the coverage to be too thin for safe touring. The best coverage appears to be on some easterly and northeasterly slopes (see photos below), but looks can be deceiving and these slopes probably do not have adequate coverage for safe turns. Even if high elevation slopes with sufficient coverage exist, obvious and hidden obstacles will make your approach and egress hazardous.
Watch for new cohesive snow layers (slabs) over faceted early season snow on northerly and eastern facing slopes where there are few anchors - slopes with a continuous and smooth substrate of cinder-gravel or grass.
Below TreelineVery thin coverage. Expect rocks and logs to make safe touring difficult to impossible.

Images

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Easterly slopes of Snowslide Canyon (center) and northerly slopes of upper Core Ridge (center right). December 16 photo by Troy Marino.

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Easterly slopes of Fremont Peak. December 16 photo by Troy Marino.

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Final Thoughts

Only 5 days remain to support KPAC and win a Transferable Season Power Pass or a Transferable Level 1 Backcountry Avalanche Course!
More Info Here...
For AZ Snowbowl access updates please refer to snowbowl.ski and flagstaffuphill.com. Uphill travel within the Snowbowl ski area boundary is currently closed. The Kachina Peaks wilderness is accessible from the lower parking lots at Snowbowl.

Always carry the 10 essentials and avalanche rescue gear for wintertime wilderness travel. Submit your observations here.

Weather

Updated Friday December 17
The past week has truly felt like winter. A quick moving storm on Tuesday night December 14 brought strong winds out of the southwest, but only 6" of heavily rimed snow at 10,800 feet. This event was followed by the coldest temperatures so far this season. High elevation wind chill temperatures dipped well below 0°F on Wednesday and Thursday morning December 15 and 16.
Building high pressure on Thursday and Friday lead to a return of near seasonal daytime temperatures, cold nights and clear skies. A dry low pressure system will bring cold northeasterly wind, but little to no precipitation during the weekend. Later in the week, there is the possibility of a Pacific storm coming our way. This storm could tap into moisture from the Southern Jet Stream, enhancing its precipitation capacity, however, the storms trajectory is still uncertain. Whether or not Santa will deliver remains in the cards.
From NWS, Flagstaff 12/17 2:38AM
"Model uncertainty remains high for late next week but the general consensus as of this writing is an increasing chance of showers as the west coast trough moves inland. In addition, the balance of model solutions are indicating a subtropical moisture tap with elevated snow levels looking more and more likely."
Snowslide SNOTEL reports 11" (28 cm) of snow at 9,730' on Wednesday, December 15. So far this winter, we have had a total of 22" (56 cm) of snowfall at 10,800' with a 19" (53 cm) undisturbed settled base depth reported by Arizona Snowbowl on December 17.
Since December 10, Snowslide SNOTEL low temperatures have ranged between 12°F on December 11 and 32°F on December 12, while highs have ranged from 34°F on December 14 to 46°F on December 12 For the same time period, ASTP station (11,555') reports a low of 2°F on December 15 and a high of 41°F on December 12.
Weather Links

Authored/Edited By: Troy Marino, David Lovejoy, Derik Spice

Avalanche Problems/Characters

The avalanche problem/character describes part of the current avalanche danger. However because we only realease a summary once a week, the current avalanche problem will likely change. Understanding avalanche problems is essential, because it allows you to determine your approach and strategies to risk treatment. Below are brief descriptions of avalanche problems/characters, and links to detailed information on the problem, formation, patterns, recognition, and avoidance strategies.
Avalanche Problems Explained
Also see the North American Danger Scale.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry

Release of dry unconsolidated snow. These avalanches typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. Loose-dry avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose-dry avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Loose Dry avalanches are usually relatively harmless to people. They can be hazardous if you are caught and carried into or over a terrain trap (e.g. gully, rocks, dense timber, cliff, crevasse) or down a long slope. Avoid traveling in or above terrain traps when Loose Dry avalanches are likely. more info

Storm Slab

Storm Slab

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side. more info

Wind Slab

Wind Slab

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas. more info

Persistent Slab

Persistent Slab

Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty. more info

Deep Persistent Slab

Deep Persistent Slab

Release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer, deep in the snowpack or near the ground. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage. They commonly develop when Persistent Slabs become more deeply buried over time.

Deep Persistent Slabs are destructive and deadly events that can take months to stabilize. You can trigger them from well down in the avalanche path, and after dozens of tracks have crossed the slope. more info

Loose Wet

Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches. more info

Wet Slab

Wet Slab

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very destructive.

Avoid terrain where and when you suspect Wet Slab avalanche activity. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty. more info

Cornice Fall

Cornice Fall

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridge line areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.

Large cornices are generally rare in Arizona, but they have been observed during very snowy winters. more info

Glide

Glide

Release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. The are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.

Predicting the release of Glide Avalanches is very challenging. Because Glide Avalanches only occur on very specific slopes, safe travel relies on identifying and avoiding those slopes. Glide cracks are a significant indicator, as are recent Glide Avalanches.

Glide avalanches are very uncommon in Arizona. more info

Snowpack Summary Disclaimer

The summaries on this site were written by Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center Board Members. They are based on a broad spectrum of data collected from weather stations, National Weather Service point forecasts and field observation by qualified individuals.

The summaries are not intended to substitute for good knowledge and decision making skills in avalanche terrain. If you have any doubt of stable conditions, please stay away from avalanche terrain. You can usually find good places to go that are not prone to avalanches, such as on low angle slopes away from avalanche run-out zones. If you have any questions about where to find such places, you should consider further avalanche educational opportunities, such as those listed on our education page.

Snowpack Summary – Format and Limitations Statement

Starting in 2012 Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center (KPAC) has publish a weekly Snowpack Summary on our website. These summaries are currently issued on Friday afternoons. On occasion, we will give storm updates or warnings of rapidly increasing avalanche hazard at more frequent intervals. Our objective is to reach weekend recreationist, informing this user group of prevailing conditions, but particularly warning of avalanche hazards whenever they are present. Many people have asked us why we use the format we do, but do not include a danger rating or a hazard/stability rose as many other avalanche centers do around the west.

The National Avalanche Center (NAC) advises small operations like KPAC, who do not issue daily bulletins to not use danger ratings in our snowpack summaries due to the regular but intermittent nature of their field observations and the length of time between issuance of snowpack summaries. A primary concern is for how conditions can change in the time between publications, potentially giving the public misleading information. At this point, we simply do not have resources to monitor the snowpack at the level necessary to accurately produce more frequent bulletins. While we understand the benefits of a danger rating using the North American Danger Scale, we also feel that our format encourages people to dig in a little deeper, and spend some time reading what our forecasters are saying. Although the area that we forecast is relatively small, the variability has proven quite large. Inner Basin conditions are often surprisingly different from those on the more wind-affected western side on the Peaks.

We hope the information that we provide in summaries helps give you a good overview of what is going on out there, and what avalanche problems you should be attentive to, but if there is any uncertainty, then we encourage you to ask questions via Facebook or info@kachinapeaks.org.

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