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Snowpack Summary for Friday, March 19, 2021 2:24 PM Natural Avalanche Cycle and the Spring Equinox

This summary expired Mar. 21, 2021 2:24 PM

Flagstaff, Arizona - Backcountry of The San Francisco Peaks and Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Disclaimer

Format and Limitations Statement

Newsletter

Overall With the forecasted warm temps and unsettled (windy and snowy) weather, human triggered avalanches will be possible.
Wednesday through Saturday (March 10-13) a slow moving low-pressure system brought ample precipitation and light to moderate southwesterly winds. The storm total reported by AZ Snowbowl (10800') was 41", with SNOTEL (9730') reporting a storm total of 27" and 2.5" of snow water equivalent. Post storm moderate to strong winds blew from the north, then early Tuesday (March 16) a quick moving shortwave through brought 10 more inches to 10800'.
Evidence observed on March 18 indicate that this mid-March storm cycle contributed to at least two natural avalanches. Debris (obscured by subsequent snow) was observed on a southeast aspect near treeline - see photo below. This avalanche was estimated as SS-N-R1-D2-U. Debris was also reported near/below treeline on a northerly slope of Core Ridge.
The spring equinox occurs Saturday, March 20, 2021.
Near and Above TreelineSteep northerly and shaded slopes still have some powder available for transport. Forecast calls for winds as well as light snow on March 20, 23 and 24. Watch for new wind slabs on leeward aspects above treeline.
Small loose wet avalanches were observed on warm sunny slopes near/above treeline on Thursday, March 18. Warming temperatures have created a melt/freeze surface on many aspects above treeline. Steep, sheltered and shady northerly slopes still have powder snow.
Below TreelineWarming temperatures have resulted in rapid settlement of the new snow (especially below 10,000'). Expect a melt/freeze surface on most or all slopes below treeline. Watch for warming on steep slopes becoming saturated and unstable.
A typical springtime warming cycle is in progress at lower elevations where the snowpack is becoming more uniform in temperature gradient (isothermal), and avalanche concerns are either related to melting (wet slides), or to poor bonding between new snow and old snowpack.
With the new snow, approaches and egresses have improved, but the warm temps of the past few days are quickly melting the coverage at lower elevations and sunny aspects.

Current Problems (noninclusive) more info

Wind Slab
problem 1
There is some powder snow (on northern near/above treeline aspects) available for transport. With more snow and winds in the forecast, the building of new wind slabs will be possible.
Loose Wet
problem 2
The Spring Equinox occurs Saturday, March 20.

Current forecast indicates a breezy and cooling trend, so this problem will probably become unlikely in the short term. But when sunny, spring weather returns, watch for warming temperatures creating wet saturated slopes. These will be most evident near exposed rocky outcrops on sun baked slopes.

Images

image

Arrows indicate avalanche debris that released during our mid-March storm cycle. Also note the more recent and small loose wet activity. See overall for more info. Mar. 18, 2021 photo by Troy Marino.

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image

Snowpit from Humphry's Cirque.

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Final Thoughts

Always carry the 10 essentials and avalanche rescue gear for wintertime wilderness travel. Submit your observations here.
For AZ Snowbowl uphill access updates, please refer to snowbowl.ski and flagstaffuphill.com. Expect uphill closures during and shortly after large storm events.
Thank you to our generous sponsors for supporting the Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center!

Weather

Weather updated Friday March 19th
Wednesday through Saturday (March 10-13) a slow moving low-pressure system brought ample precipitation and light to moderate southwesterly winds. Storm total reported by AZ Snowbowl (10800') was 41", with SNOTEL (9730') reporting a storm total of 27" and 2.5" of snow water equivalent. Post storm moderate to strong winds blew from the north, then early Tuesday (March 16) a quick moving shortwave through brought 10 more inches to 10800'.
The last few days of high pressure has resulted in daytime treeline temperatures of over 40°F.
"Look for warm and breezy weather today followed by windy and cooler weather over the weekend. A passing weather disturbance could bring a few showers to northern portions of Arizona from Sunday afternoon into Monday. Additional weather disturbances will continue to produce unsettled weather through the bulk of next week." March 19, 2021, NWS Flagstaff, AZ.
Snowslide SNOTEL reports 46" (117 cm) of snow at 9,730' on Friday, March 19, down from a maximum of 59" (150 cm) on March 14. So far this winter we have had a total of 183" (465 cm) of snowfall at 10,800 feet; with a 64" (163 cm) undisturbed settled base depth reported by Arizona Snowbowl on March 19.
Since Friday, March 12 Snowslide SNOTEL low temperatures have ranged between 9°F on March 13 and 16, to 24°F on March 15, while highs have ranged from 22°F on March 13, to 54°F on March 18. For the same time period, ASTP station (11,555’) reports a low of 0°F on March 16, and a high of 43°F on March 18.
Weather Links

Authored/Edited By: Troy Marino, Derik Spice

Avalanche Problems/Characters

The avalanche problem/character describes part of the current avalanche danger. However because we only realease a summary once a week, the current avalanche problem will likely change. Understanding avalanche problems is essential, because it allows you to determine your approach and strategies to risk treatment. Below are brief descriptions of avalanche problems/characters, and links to detailed information on the problem, formation, patterns, recognition, and avoidance strategies.
Avalanche Problems Explained
Also see the North American Danger Scale.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry

Release of dry unconsolidated snow. These avalanches typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. Loose-dry avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose-dry avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Loose Dry avalanches are usually relatively harmless to people. They can be hazardous if you are caught and carried into or over a terrain trap (e.g. gully, rocks, dense timber, cliff, crevasse) or down a long slope. Avoid traveling in or above terrain traps when Loose Dry avalanches are likely. more info

Storm Slab

Storm Slab

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side. more info

Wind Slab

Wind Slab

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas. more info

Persistent Slab

Persistent Slab

Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty. more info

Deep Persistent Slab

Deep Persistent Slab

Release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer, deep in the snowpack or near the ground. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage. They commonly develop when Persistent Slabs become more deeply buried over time.

Deep Persistent Slabs are destructive and deadly events that can take months to stabilize. You can trigger them from well down in the avalanche path, and after dozens of tracks have crossed the slope. more info

Loose Wet

Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches. more info

Wet Slab

Wet Slab

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very destructive.

Avoid terrain where and when you suspect Wet Slab avalanche activity. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty. more info

Cornice Fall

Cornice Fall

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridge line areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.

Large cornices are generally rare in Arizona, but they have been observed during very snowy winters. more info

Glide

Glide

Release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. The are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.

Predicting the release of Glide Avalanches is very challenging. Because Glide Avalanches only occur on very specific slopes, safe travel relies on identifying and avoiding those slopes. Glide cracks are a significant indicator, as are recent Glide Avalanches.

Glide avalanches are very uncommon in Arizona. more info

Snowpack Summary Disclaimer

The summaries on this site were written by Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center Board Members. They are based on a broad spectrum of data collected from weather stations, National Weather Service point forecasts and field observation by qualified individuals.

The summaries are not intended to substitute for good knowledge and decision making skills in avalanche terrain. If you have any doubt of stable conditions, please stay away from avalanche terrain. You can usually find good places to go that are not prone to avalanches, such as on low angle slopes away from avalanche run-out zones. If you have any questions about where to find such places, you should consider further avalanche educational opportunities, such as those listed on our education page.

Snowpack Summary – Format and Limitations Statement

Starting in 2012 Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center (KPAC) has publish a weekly Snowpack Summary on our website. These summaries are currently issued on Friday afternoons. On occasion, we will give storm updates or warnings of rapidly increasing avalanche hazard at more frequent intervals. Our objective is to reach weekend recreationist, informing this user group of prevailing conditions, but particularly warning of avalanche hazards whenever they are present. Many people have asked us why we use the format we do, but do not include a danger rating or a hazard/stability rose as many other avalanche centers do around the west.

The National Avalanche Center (NAC) advises small operations like KPAC, who do not issue daily bulletins to not use danger ratings in our snowpack summaries due to the regular but intermittent nature of their field observations and the length of time between issuance of snowpack summaries. A primary concern is for how conditions can change in the time between publications, potentially giving the public misleading information. At this point, we simply do not have resources to monitor the snowpack at the level necessary to accurately produce more frequent bulletins. While we understand the benefits of a danger rating using the North American Danger Scale, we also feel that our format encourages people to dig in a little deeper, and spend some time reading what our forecasters are saying. Although the area that we forecast is relatively small, the variability has proven quite large. Inner Basin conditions are often surprisingly different from those on the more wind-affected western side on the Peaks.

We hope the information that we provide in summaries helps give you a good overview of what is going on out there, and what avalanche problems you should be attentive to, but if there is any uncertainty, then we encourage you to ask questions via Facebook or info@kachinapeaks.org.

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