Weather updated Friday morning, January 14th by David Lovejoy.
The cut-off low, dubbed “the pesky Baja California low” by the National Weather Service (NWS), wandered indecisively, as they are known to do, and has now finally made landfall. Unfortunately, it is not bringing precipitation to the region at this point, making it two weeks since any snowfall was recorded on the San Francisco Peaks. Nighttime temperature inversions continued last week, typical of high pressure aloft. Surface hoar was observed early in the week, formed when sinking nighttime air cooled slopes and basins below the dew point. Winds were locally breezy, with ridge-top gusts in the mid 20s, mainly from the east .
For Friday and into the Martin Luther King weekend, expect a modest cool down and very windy conditions as a storm crossing the Great Basin misses us to the northeast. Ridge-top gusts reaching 60+ mph out of the northeast are possible from Friday evening to Saturday, followed by a cold aftermath on Saturday night.
High pressure and above average temperatures will return on Sunday and for the holiday on Monday, followed by a slight chance of unsettled weather on Tuesday as the now considerably weakened cut off low may finally wander into Arizona. At this point, cloudy skies and very light snow showers are a possibility--at best.
Snowslide SNOTEL reports 29" (74 cm) of snow at 9,730' on Friday, January 14th. So far this winter, we have had a total of 78" (198 cm) of snowfall at 10,800' with a 45" (114 cm) undisturbed settled base depth reported by Arizona Snowbowl on January 14th.
Since January 7th, Snowslide SNOTEL low temperatures have ranged between 6°F on January 9th and 22°F on January 13th, while highs have ranged from 31°F on January 9th to 48°F on January 13th. For the same time period, ASTP station (11,555') reports a low of 15°F on January 8th and 9th and a high of 49°F on January 13th.