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Snowpack Summary for Friday, January 21, 2022 1:51 PM Fierce wind and 3" of precipitation for the week

This summary expired Jan. 23, 2022 1:51 PM

Flagstaff, Arizona - Backcountry of The San Francisco Peaks and Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Disclaimer

Format and Limitations Statement

Newsletter

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onX Backcountry
Overall Natural avalanches are unlikely and human triggered avalanches are possible where new wind slabs have formed.
Wind is the architect of avalanches, and we have had plenty of wind this week. However, the intensity of the 72 mph north, northeast wind has most likely stripped what little snow remains in the start zones. Still, there is a chance that the 3" of precipitation from Tuesday has been distributed in such a way that reactive windslabs have developed on leeward slopes.
Moving forward into the weekend the forecasted 3-6 inches of snow at 10,800’ along with strong southwest, shifting to northeast, winds in the range of 20-35 mph could be ideal for snow transport and the development of windslabs.
Unfortunately, early season conditions persist and recreationists should remain cautious of both obvious and partially buried obstacles.
No natural or human caused avalanches have been reported this winter.
Some recent snowpit data may be found at snowpit.org
Near and Above TreelineWind has distributed snow across the San Francisco Peaks in highly variable ways. Some slopes have deep deposits of wind blown snow, while other areas have been stripped leaving loose, rocky terrain. Reports suggest travel near and above treeline is arduous.
Shifting winds from the southwest to the northeast over the next 48 hours could cause some wind loading on a variety of terrain features.
Basal facets have been observed, though layers above are reported to be unreactive. New snow and additional wind loading could bring these layers to life. Be alert to changing conditions.
Below TreelineBelow treeline avalanches are unlikely. Thin coverage, rocks, and logs will make approaches and egresses challenging, particularly below 10,500 ft. and on steep terrain.

Current Problems (noninclusive) more info

Wind Slab
problem 1
At and above treeline isolated pockets of wind formed slab could be possible as winds shift direction and precipitation occurs over the next 48 hours. Forecasted wind in the 15-25mph is ideal for transporting wind into start zones, gullies and lower ridgeline terrain features.

Images

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View from Fremont. Photo Courtesy of Jacob Parchinski

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Wind transport on 1/20. Photo by Blair Foust

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Final Thoughts

Always carry the 10 essentials and avalanche rescue gear for wintertime wilderness travel. Submit your observations here.
For AZ Snowbowl uphill access updates please refer to snowbowl.ski and flagstaffuphill.com. The Kachina Peaks wilderness is accessible from the lower parking lots at Snowbowl.

Weather

Weather updated Friday January 21 -David Lovejoy
The weather last week was cool and calm, with light snowfall on Tuesday and the delayed passing of our lingering cut off low. Still, Snowbowl recorded 3“ of new snow at 10,800’ on Wednesday morning January 19.
Since then, a steep wave of high pressure over southern California is steering a short wave low towards our region, dropping southward from the Great Basin. Although the storm is cool and on the dry side, due to its northerly overland path, it will intensify as it transforms into a closed low pressure cell before impacting Arizona. On Friday afternoon through Saturday, San Francisco Peaks could get 3-6 inches of snow at 10,800’ along with strong southwest, shifting to to northeast winds in the range of 20-35 mph. Snow line will be 5000-5500 feet.
Drying and gradually warming weather will follow, characterizing the up coming workweek with a return to seasonally normal temperatures. Regretfully, no precipitation producing storms are evident on the horizon. A dry short wave low will cool temperatures and produce breezy weather on Tuesday and Wednesday, but after this, the California high appears to be spreading its influence over the entire Southwest.
Snowslide SNOTEL reports 30” (76 cm) of snow at 9,730' on Friday, January 21. So far this winter, we have had a total of 81" (206 cm) of snowfall at 10,800' with a 46" (117 cm) undisturbed settled base depth reported by Arizona Snowbowl on January 21.
Since January 14, Snowslide SNOTEL low temperatures have ranged between 9°F on January 20 and 24°F on January 14, while highs have ranged from 35°F on January 18 and 20 to 47°F on January 16. For the same time period, ASTP station (11,555') reports a low of 14°F on January 19 and a high of 47°F on January 16.
Weather Links

Authored/Edited By: Blair Foust, Derik Spice

Avalanche Problems/Characters

The avalanche problem/character describes part of the current avalanche danger. However because we only realease a summary once a week, the current avalanche problem will likely change. Understanding avalanche problems is essential, because it allows you to determine your approach and strategies to risk treatment. Below are brief descriptions of avalanche problems/characters, and links to detailed information on the problem, formation, patterns, recognition, and avoidance strategies.
Avalanche Problems Explained
Also see the North American Danger Scale.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry

Release of dry unconsolidated snow. These avalanches typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. Loose-dry avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose-dry avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Loose Dry avalanches are usually relatively harmless to people. They can be hazardous if you are caught and carried into or over a terrain trap (e.g. gully, rocks, dense timber, cliff, crevasse) or down a long slope. Avoid traveling in or above terrain traps when Loose Dry avalanches are likely. more info

Storm Slab

Storm Slab

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side. more info

Wind Slab

Wind Slab

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas. more info

Persistent Slab

Persistent Slab

Release of a cohesive layer of soft to hard snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

The best ways to manage the risk from Persistent Slabs is to make conservative terrain choices. They can be triggered by light loads and weeks after the last storm. The slabs often propagate in surprising and unpredictable ways. This makes this problem difficult to predict and manage and requires a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty. more info

Deep Persistent Slab

Deep Persistent Slab

Release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer, deep in the snowpack or near the ground. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage. They commonly develop when Persistent Slabs become more deeply buried over time.

Deep Persistent Slabs are destructive and deadly events that can take months to stabilize. You can trigger them from well down in the avalanche path, and after dozens of tracks have crossed the slope. more info

Loose Wet

Loose Wet

Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches. more info

Wet Slab

Wet Slab

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very destructive.

Avoid terrain where and when you suspect Wet Slab avalanche activity. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty. more info

Cornice Fall

Cornice Fall

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridge line areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.

Large cornices are generally rare in Arizona, but they have been observed during very snowy winters. more info

Glide

Glide

Release of the entire snow cover as a result of gliding over the ground. Glide avalanches can be composed of wet, moist, or almost entirely dry snow. They typically occur in very specific paths, where the slope is steep enough and the ground surface is relatively smooth. The are often proceeded by full depth cracks (glide cracks), though the time between the appearance of a crack and an avalanche can vary between seconds and months. Glide avalanches are unlikely to be triggered by a person, are nearly impossible to forecast, and thus pose a hazard that is extremely difficult to manage.

Predicting the release of Glide Avalanches is very challenging. Because Glide Avalanches only occur on very specific slopes, safe travel relies on identifying and avoiding those slopes. Glide cracks are a significant indicator, as are recent Glide Avalanches.

Glide avalanches are very uncommon in Arizona. more info

Snowpack Summary Disclaimer

The summaries on this site were written by Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center Board Members. They are based on a broad spectrum of data collected from weather stations, National Weather Service point forecasts and field observation by qualified individuals.

The summaries are not intended to substitute for good knowledge and decision making skills in avalanche terrain. If you have any doubt of stable conditions, please stay away from avalanche terrain. You can usually find good places to go that are not prone to avalanches, such as on low angle slopes away from avalanche run-out zones. If you have any questions about where to find such places, you should consider further avalanche educational opportunities, such as those listed on our education page.

Snowpack Summary – Format and Limitations Statement

Starting in 2012 Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center (KPAC) has publish a weekly Snowpack Summary on our website. These summaries are currently issued on Friday afternoons. On occasion, we will give storm updates or warnings of rapidly increasing avalanche hazard at more frequent intervals. Our objective is to reach weekend recreationist, informing this user group of prevailing conditions, but particularly warning of avalanche hazards whenever they are present. Many people have asked us why we use the format we do, but do not include a danger rating or a hazard/stability rose as many other avalanche centers do around the west.

The National Avalanche Center (NAC) advises small operations like KPAC, who do not issue daily bulletins to not use danger ratings in our snowpack summaries due to the regular but intermittent nature of their field observations and the length of time between issuance of snowpack summaries. A primary concern is for how conditions can change in the time between publications, potentially giving the public misleading information. At this point, we simply do not have resources to monitor the snowpack at the level necessary to accurately produce more frequent bulletins. While we understand the benefits of a danger rating using the North American Danger Scale, we also feel that our format encourages people to dig in a little deeper, and spend some time reading what our forecasters are saying. Although the area that we forecast is relatively small, the variability has proven quite large. Inner Basin conditions are often surprisingly different from those on the more wind-affected western side on the Peaks.

We hope the information that we provide in summaries helps give you a good overview of what is going on out there, and what avalanche problems you should be attentive to, but if there is any uncertainty, then we encourage you to ask questions via Facebook or info@kachinapeaks.org.

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